Tech Money Flow

Ep 2 · October 19, 2026

The Buyer Gets Paid To Be A Buyer

Chip sellers playing bank, and why the famous layer scores a 3.

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Behind the scores

The Superstar: 3 · Locked volume · 1 company: Broadcom

“Certain multi-year customer contracts in our semiconductor solutions segment and infrastructure software segment, including contracts where customers do not have termination rights, contain firmly committed amounts and the remaining performance obligations under these contracts as of August 2, 2026 were approximately $179.2 billion. These commitments include obligations under a long-term contract for custom AI accelerators entered in the fiscal quarter ended May 3, 2026.”
Broadcom 10-Q, quarter ended August 2, 2026, Revenue note, “Remaining Performance Obligations”
Educational only

The Traffic Cops: 5 · Price hike the buyer admitted · 1 buyer: Arista

“Simultaneously, supply chain inflation and material scarcity, such as the tightening of supply conditions in the memory and silicon markets, have continued to put pressure on our gross margin.”
Arista 10-Q, quarter ended June 30, 2026, MD&A, “Macroeconomic Update”
Educational only

The fine print on the deals

NVIDIA 10-Q, “SB Energy Corp. guarantees”

“In August 2026, we entered into guarantees, capped at a total of $105 billion, to provide credit support on a land, power, and shell buildout with affiliates of SB Energy Corp. (SB Energy) on behalf of a customer, an affiliate of OpenAI Group PBC (OpenAI), related to leases for approximately 4.25 gigawatts of IT load in the aggregate at SB Energy’s PORTS Technology Campus in Pike County, Ohio. \[…\] In exchange for the guarantees, the site will exclusively host NVIDIA AI infrastructure, subject to limited exceptions.”
NVIDIA 10-Q, quarter ended July 26, 2026, Commitments and Contingencies note, “SB Energy Corp. guarantees.” The […] skips four sentences.
Educational only
“OpenAI has agreed to reimburse and indemnify NVIDIA for any and all amounts actually paid by NVIDIA to the Lessor under the Agreements.”
NVIDIA 8-K, August 17, 2026, Item 1.01, “Residual Value Guaranties”
Educational only
“Although OpenAI has agreed to reimburse and indemnify us for certain losses, we may not recover amounts promptly or in full.”
NVIDIA 10-Q, quarter ended July 26, 2026, risk factor on the guarantees
Educational only

Marvell 8-K, August 19, 2026, Item 1.01

“The remaining Warrant Shares vest based on discretionary purchases from the Company’s third quarter of fiscal 2027 through the end of the Company’s fiscal year 2033 by or on behalf of Google and its affiliates in 240 equal tranches, with one tranche vesting for each $500 million in Custom Products revenue.”
Marvell 8-K, August 19, 2026, Item 1.01
Educational only

Broadcom 10-Q, “Convertible Notes”

“In connection with lease agreements that enable access to compute capacity, our customer may, under certain circumstances and if needed, issue to us convertible promissory notes up to an aggregate principal amount of $42 billion. The notes are subject to various conditions, including the requirement to use the notes or proceeds from the notes, if any, solely for the customer’s obligations under the lease agreements. As of August 2, 2026, no notes have been issued to us.”
Broadcom 10-Q, quarter ended August 2, 2026, Commitments and Contingencies note, “Convertible Notes”
Educational only

Broadcom 8-K, April 6, 2026, Item 8.01

“Broadcom Inc. (“Broadcom”) and Google LLC (“Google”) have entered into a Long Term Agreement for Broadcom to develop and supply custom Tensor Processing Units (“TPUs”) for Google’s future generations of TPUs and a Supply Assurance Agreement for Broadcom to supply networking and other components to be used in Google’s next-generation AI racks through up to 2031.”
Broadcom 8-K, April 6, 2026, Item 8.01
Educational only

Context, not receipts

  • Microsoft’s Maia 300 announcement, October 12, 2026.
  • SemiAnalysis, “TPU Inference Externalization Full Steam Ahead,” September 7, 2026, third-party research.
  • Reports citing The Information, March 2025, that Google added MediaTek as a TPU design partner alongside Broadcom.

Layer scores. Not stock ratings.

0 No receipt · 1–2 Sold out · 3–4 Locked volume · 5–6 Price hike the buyer admitted · 7–8 Signed floor · 9–10 Paid up front

I hold positions across these layers and never name them on the show. No company gets a score or a rank. The featured layer is set by the checkpoint calendar before the week's research starts.

Educational only. Not investment advice. Layer scores are the show's own judgment.