The ledger

The Warehouse

Memory and storage

SanDisk's buyers paid ahead under its new long-term deals. Samsung says its multi-year memory contracts require substantial advance payments, and it has received a quarter of them.

Step

Paid up front · still in motion

Sources

2 companies: SanDisk, Samsung

Sellers I check

Kioxia, Micron, Samsung, SanDisk, SK hynix

Covers

DRAM, NAND and SSDs under SanDisk's long-term agreements (NBMs); Samsung's memory contracts.

Why this number

Two companies clear the same step, so the top of the pair.

What knocks it down

Either company says the money goes back, or SanDisk's advances fail to draw down against deliveries. SanDisk's FQ1 FY27 10-Q is the drawdown test.

What it doesn't prove

That memory makers keep the money, or how big Samsung's payments are. SanDisk also holds $1.5B of security deposits it must refund; that is a separate line and does not count.

Still in motion because

Neither company says whether the advances can come back.

The Bouncer

Power and cooling

GE Vernova says the supply capacity it has secured is all funded by customer down payments, with slot reservations on top. Siemens Energy points to higher customer prepayments, including reservation fees.

Step

Paid up front · still in motion

Sources

2 companies: GE Vernova, Siemens Energy

Sellers I check

Eaton, GE Vernova, Hitachi, Schneider Electric, Siemens Energy

Covers

Gas turbines and grid equipment (Siemens Energy's own segment descriptions define Gas Services and Grid Technologies).

Why this number

A second independent company clears the same step.

What knocks it down

Either company says the money is refundable or returned, for example a reservation fee refunded when a slot doesn't become an order.

What it doesn't prove

How much of either order book is for data centers. Siemens Energy says slot reservations turn into orders in 6–12 months on average. GE Vernova's 10-Q calls its contract liabilities ordinary commercial terms; it still passes on higher down payments from new slot reservations.

Still in motion because

Both are silent on refunds.

The Foundation

Substrates and wafers

Intel, a buyer of chip substrates, says it has to put money up in advance to get them.

Step

Paid up front · still in motion

Sources

1 company: Intel, as buyer

Sellers I check

Ajinomoto, GlobalWafers, Ibiden, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, SUMCO

Covers

Package substrates.

Why this number

One company, so 9, not 10.

What knocks it down

Intel no longer having to pay up front. Likely causes: glass substrates reaching production, or a second source qualifying on ABF film.

What it doesn't prove

How much of the money Intel puts up front goes to substrates rather than other parts.

Still in motion because

Nothing says whether the money comes back.

The Owners

Cloud and platform

Oracle received $11.4B of customer prepayments in one quarter, tied on its call to new cloud contracts.

Step

Paid up front · still in motion

Sources

1 company: Oracle

Sellers I check

Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle

Covers

Oracle's new cloud contracts, tied to the prepayments on its call.

Why this number

One company, so 9, not 10.

What knocks it down

That cash going back, or a filing that says it can.

What it doesn't prove

Why Oracle asked for it (it lists prepayments among its tools for managing customer credit risk), or that anyone makes money on it. The prepayments carry a financing component, so Oracle pays interest on them.

Still in motion because

Nothing says whether the money comes back.

The Toolmaker

Manufacturing equipment

TSMC, the biggest buyer of chipmaking tools, says it pays more for them.

Step

Price hike the buyer admitted · settled

Sources

1 company: TSMC, as buyer

Sellers I check

Applied Materials, ASML, KLA, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron

Covers

Wafer fab equipment. "Tool prices" is named in the question the answer replies to.

Why this number

One buyer. ASML's price increases are the seller talking, and its down payments are standing practice.

What knocks it down

TSMC saying tool prices stopped rising or came down.

What it doesn't prove

Which tool maker charges TSMC more, how much more, or who keeps it.

The Traffic Cops

Networking silicon

Arista, which buys its switch chips mostly from Broadcom, says it is paying more for chips.

Step

Price hike the buyer admitted · settled

Sources

1 company: Arista, as buyer

Sellers I check

AMD, Broadcom, Intel, Marvell, NVIDIA

Covers

Switch chips (Arista's filings name Broadcom as its main switch-chip vendor).

Why this number

One buyer, so 5, not 6.

What knocks it down

The buyer saying chip prices came back down. Then the layer falls back to Broadcom's sold-out statement.

What it doesn't prove

How much more Arista pays, or how the increase splits between memory and switch chips.

The Long Haul

Optical interconnect

Lumentum says its new pump-laser deals are mostly 3-year, and in most cases the buyer pays either way.

Step

Locked volume · settled

Sources

1 company: Lumentum

Sellers I check

Coherent, Corning, Fabrinet, InnoLight, Lumentum

Covers

Pump lasers (named in the analyst question the answer replies to).

Why this number

One company. Coherent's minimums name no product, and Corning's $1.0B deposit fails on "generally non-refundable."

What knocks it down

Lumentum saying those deals can be cancelled, or no longer describing them.

What it doesn't prove

Sizes, counterparties, or that every deal is pay either way.

The Superstar

Compute silicon

Broadcom's filing shows customer contracts with no right to back out, including a long-term deal for custom AI chips.

Step

Locked volume · settled

Sources

1 company: Broadcom

Sellers I check

AMD, Broadcom, Intel, Marvell, NVIDIA

Covers

Custom AI accelerators.

Why this number

One company, so the bottom of the pair.

What knocks it down

Broadcom's filings no longer describing firmly committed amounts with no termination rights.

What it doesn't prove

A price that can't fall, so it isn't a signed floor. No size for the AI piece.

The Print Shop

Foundry

TSMC says demand for its most advanced chips is far beyond what it can make.

Step

Sold out · settled

Sources

1 company: TSMC

Sellers I check

Intel, Samsung, TSMC

Covers

Leading-edge wafer manufacturing, 7nm and below.

Why this number

One seller. Samsung's "full utilization" line covers 8nm and below, so it fails the 7nm cutoff.

What knocks it down

TSMC saying supply caught up with demand.

What it doesn't prove

Any buyer paying up front or paying more.

The Bottleneck

Advanced packaging

TSMC says its packaging capacity is so tight it limits its customers' growth.

Step

Sold out · settled

Sources

1 company: TSMC

Sellers I check

Amkor, ASE, Intel, Powertech, TSMC

Covers

Advanced packaging (TSMC).

Why this number

One seller. ASE's line is company-wide, Amkor's is unbuilt Arizona capacity, and Amkor's prepayment from NVIDIA lands in 2027. Promised isn't paid.

What knocks it down

TSMC saying packaging capacity caught up.

What it doesn't prove

Any buyer paying up front or a price hike.

On watch

Amkor's Q2 10-Q shows $100.0M of customer advance payments received in July 2026, customer and product unnamed. If its Q3 10-Q ties them to advanced packaging, this layer could move.

The Grounds Crew

Construction

Comfort Systems says its customers want to buy as much as it can produce.

Step

Sold out · settled

Sources

1 company: Comfort Systems

Sellers I check

Comfort Systems, EMCOR, Hochtief (Turner), MasTec, Quanta

Covers

Data center mechanical and electrical installation, including modular builds.

Why this number

One seller.

What knocks it down

Comfort Systems saying capacity caught up, or new capacity going up without a customer attached.

What it doesn't prove

That customers prepay. Its advance cash is billing ahead, which is ordinary terms.

The Plumbing

Electrical interconnect

Step

No receipt

Sources

None

Sellers I check

Amphenol, Credo, FIT Hon Teng, Luxshare, TE Connectivity

Covers

Copper cables, connectors, active electrical cables.

Why this number

No Tape company clears a step.

What would move it

Any Tape company disclosing a prepay, a floor, a buyer-admitted price hike, locked volume or a sold-out position.

What it doesn't prove

Anything about the business. A 0 is a verdict on the proof.