Ep 3 · October 26, 2026
€9.3 Billion of Customer Money, and I Still Won't Count It
One company makes the machine. One builder admits it pays more.
Behind the score
The Toolmaker: 5 · Price hike the buyer admitted · 1 buyer: TSMC
“The tool price inflation is real.”
Educational only
Same answer (paraphrase, not a quote): material and labor cost more too.
What it doesn't prove: Which tool maker charges TSMC more, how much more, or who keeps it. TSMC didn't name ASML, and ASML's higher prices start in 2027.
What the store said (the seller talking, not a receipt)
ASML (ASML) · Annual report 2025, Form 20-F · “Our products and services”
“ASML is currently the world’s only manufacturer of EUV lithography systems.”
Educational only
ASML (ASML) · Q3 2026 results, Oct 14, 2026 · Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1 · CEO statement, Christophe Fouquet
“In light of their demand visibility, some customers are expressing an interest in placing orders with us for 2029 and even 2030.”
Educational only
“With such strong visibility and an order book momentum that continues to increase quarter on quarter this year, we now expect that our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers.”
Educational only
The release adds its footnote 2 to the second sentence.
ASML (ASML) · Q3 2026 · Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.3 · Quarterly Summary US GAAP Consolidated Balance Sheets (Unaudited, €, in millions) · non-current liabilities, “Contract liabilities”
Sep 28, 2025: 3,572.3 · Dec 31, 2025: 3,366.3 · Mar 29, 2026: 3,585.7 · Jun 28, 2026: 3,570.3 · Sep 27, 2026: 9,300.6
Why it doesn't count: ASML takes money down on every order. More orders, more money down. That's standing practice, not a new arrangement. What would count: something new on top, like a fee just to hold a spot in line, or ASML saying customer cash pays for its expansion.
ASML (ASML) · Q3 2026 earnings call, Oct 14, 2026 · paraphrase, not a quote
Price talks with customers are done. Higher prices on its most critical products. Some in 2027, full effect from 2028. ASML says it had never done this before.
Context, not receipts
- Applied Materials · call, Aug 13, 2026 · CFO Brice Hill: new charges to rush an order and to cancel one.
- KLA · call, Jul 28, 2026 · CFO Bren Higgins: lead times of about 12 months. KLA also buys memory chips and says it pays more for them.
- Lam Research · call, Oct 21, 2026 · CFO Doug Bettinger: working on its prices.
- Tokyo Electron · Q&A, Aug 3, 2026: working on its prices.
- The Elec (a Korean trade paper) · Oct 11, 2026 · citing industry sources: ASML is raising prices 10% on replacement parts in Korea from January 2027, and Samsung and SK hynix said yes. A news story never counts as a receipt.
- Marvell (MRVL) · 8-K, Aug 19, 2026 (from Ep 2): Google's right to buy Marvell stock.
- GE Vernova (GEV) · Q2 2026 call, Jul 22, 2026 (from Ep 1): buyers paid to reserve slots, and its CEO said customer down payments paid for the expansion. That's what a new arrangement on top looks like.
Layer scores. Not stock ratings.
0 No receipt · 1–2 Sold out · 3–4 Locked volume · 5–6 Price hike the buyer admitted · 7–8 Signed floor · 9–10 Paid up front
I hold positions across these layers and never name them on the show. No company gets a score or a rank. The featured layer is set by the checkpoint calendar before the week's research starts.
Educational only. Not investment advice. Layer scores are the show's own judgment.